A lonely way to die

Amid the mercurial details concerning Castro's health, this paragraph caught my eye:

Dr Garcia Sabrido's prognosis has changed little since December 26 when, on his return from examining Castro, he said the leader did not have cancer and could even return to power. Castro's medical condition is a state secret, but Cuban authorities deny he has terminal cancer.

I'm taking it as a given that Castro in dying, and that the Cuban state has every reason to keep his health a secret. Their non-denial denial, "Of course he's not dying of terminal cancer, don't be foolish!" doesn't fool anyone. Likely he's slowly dying of an infection that his body just can't fight off - much the same way Pope John Paul II went. Castro's on old man, for chrissakes!

How bitterly terrifying it must be for him - he is the lynchpin of a charismatic cult of state. His longevity is of such significance that his enemies and his allies (except for the closest) are denied the opportunity for any resolution to their relationships with him - or he with them. Contrast this with the throngs who flocked to Rome to hold vigil with the pontiff in his final hours. Regardless of my feelings about that particular human being or the institution he represented, it was a powerful thing to witness.

Rightly or wrongly, Castro would probably have those crowds making their peace with him were his condition revealed. Unfortunately, it would also unleash the ambitions of a thousand enemies - of Castro and of Cuba. I'm wondering if this is how he imagined his last days, of necessity quarantined away from "the people."

The times they are a-changin'

On the heels of Pinochet, we see this buried deep in the front section of Friday's WaPo:

Cuban President Fidel Castro is very ill and close to death, Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte said yesterday.

Castro's legacy is going to be a difficult one to reckon. His five decades in power have undoubtedly produced more than its fair share of injustices. But Cuba was also spared the wholesale slaughter of the neo-colonial Central American proxy wars of the 80s.

There have been a few Pinochet-Castro comparisons floating around the 'osphere of late, many pointing out that the right-wing's barbarian produced a relatively stable "free market" Chile, while Cuba's economy languished under the left-wing barbarian. Could a socialist Cuban economy have succeeded had the United States not stubbornly clung to its open hostility and trade embargo? In the contest of long-term results, didn't the left-wing barbarian enter the contest with one arm tied behind its back? What narrative is going to dominate the billions of people in the world in the next 100 years, the one about the Latin American thug who overthrew a democratically elected regime with the help of the gringos, or the Latin American thug who overthrew a near-feudal vassal and said "Fuck you" to the United States - right on its front porch - for decades?

More importantly, as much as they have chafed under Castro, I don't know that the "freedom" of North American free trade regimes are what the Cuban people have in mind for their post-Castro society. If - and this is a hugely qualified if - Raul Castro were to allow free and fair elections upon his brother's death, and the Cuban people subsequently elected a government dedicated to Cuban socialism (sans the more repressive elements, presumably), would the United States respect that decision and still open trade relations? I honestly have no idea, and I'll gladly defer to any Latin America experts in the house. Whatever the case, I think I'd be nervous about the next few years if I were a Cuban.

Not encouraging

It's sometimes pretty easy to look past Castro and see only Cuba's fairly remarkable accomplishments in health care, education, and agriculture despite a scarcity imposed by the United States. But Castro is the glue that holds it together, for better and for worse. Castro's hold on power, now in its fifth decade, has been surrounded by a halo of paranoia which went far beyond protecting the Revolution from its enemies into criminalizing any sort of political dissent. You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have, they say, the facts of Cuba.

And while Cuba's claim to the title of "socialist paradise" certainly has more to do with its climate than its classlessness, things have the potential to be a lot worse if the U.S. corporate class has its way with the island.